The Influence of The Rupiah Exchange Rate, Inflation and Fuel Subsidy on Motorcycle Consumption in 2019-2023 and Estimating The Level of Petroleum Production : Implementation of the Arima Model

Abstract

Abstract. Growth amount user motorcycle in Indonesia the more Lots from year to year. Population motorcycle Which the more Lots worried will worsen congestion And problem inefficiency use material burn oil. Wrong One Which become reason increasing consumption motorcycle inIndonesia is a condition of macroeconomic factors. This research aims to determine the effect macroeconomic factors which include exchange rates, inflation and fuel subsidies on motorbike consumption in Indonesia in 2019- 2023 and considering the increase in oil production levels. The data used is monthly time series data for the January period 2019-December 2023. The t test shows that there is no influence of exchange rates, inflation on motorbike consumption, while subsidies Fuel has a positive effect on motorbike consumption, but these results must take into account the increase in petroleum production which will have an impact on resource availability in the future. The results of the data test show that the exchange rate and inflation have an influencepositive and significant on motorbike consumption.