Do Sharia Financial Instruments Drive Indonesia’s Economic Growth? An ECM Approach
Abstract
This study examines the short-run and long-run effects of Islamic financial instruments and investment on Indonesia’s economic growth using quarterly time-series data from 2015Q1 to 2024Q4. Specifically, it analyzes the role of sharia stocks, sharia mutual funds, domestic investment (PMDN), and foreign direct investment (PMA) in influencing national economic growth. The Error Correction Model (ECM) is employed to capture both short-term dynamics and long-term equilibrium relationships among the variables. The unit root test confirms that all variables are integrated of order one I(1), while the cointegration test indicates the existence of a long-run relationship. The empirical results show that sharia stocks and sharia mutual funds do not have a significant effect on economic growth in both the short run and the long run. Domestic investment exhibits a positive and statistically significant impact on long-term economic growth, indicating its crucial role in supporting Indonesia’s structural economic expansion. Meanwhile, foreign investment does not significantly affect economic growth in either time horizon. The error correction term (ECT) is negative and statistically significant, confirming the validity of the ECM model and the adjustment process toward long-term equilibrium. These findings suggest that although Islamic financial instruments have grown in size, their contribution to macroeconomic growth remains limited, while domestic investment plays a more strategic role in sustaining long-term economic development. This study contributes to the growing literature on Islamic finance and macroeconomic performance by providing recent empirical evidence and offering policy implications for strengthening the real-sector integration of sharia financial instruments.
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